Abstract

Kazakhstan has long championed a multi-vector foreign policy that entails balancing ties with Russia, China, the West, and regional organizations as a means to preserve strategic autonomy and attract foreign investment. In recent years, however, this doctrine has come under renewed scrutiny considering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, intensifying global polarization, and rising domestic authoritarianism. This lecture revisits the concept of vectorism through the lens of Kazakhstan’s post-2022 trajectory, arguing that rather than being abandoned, multi-vectorism has been reconfigured to serve the dual goals of authoritarian consolidation and international diversification.

The lecture places the January 2022 events, mass protests and the subsequent violent crackdown, as a critical juncture that triggered elite reshuffling and accelerated Tokayev’s consolidation of power. It was followed by a wave of symbolic reforms under the “New Kazakhstan” banner, which coincided with renewed diplomatic engagement with Europe, China, and the fellow Central Asian and Turkic countries (Abishev, Kurmanov, and Sabitov 2024, Cornell and Barro 2023, Kudaibergenova and Laruelle 2022, Thibault and Tastaibek 2023). While the regime sought to distance itself rhetorically from Moscow and abstained from overt alignment, it remains institutionally embedded in Russia-led projects like the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). At the same time deepening its participation in China-led initiatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

I argue that Kazakhstan’s evolving foreign policy exemplifies authoritarian resilience without isolation. Rather than decoupling from global institutions, the regime has strategically intensified its engagement with multiple partners to reduce overdependence, enhance its international image, and reinforce regime legitimacy at home. This reconfiguration illustrates how foreign policy can be instrumentalized for domestic legitimation in authoritarian contexts. Drawing on empirical examples from institutional reforms, diplomatic shifts, and integration agreements, this lecture highlights the entanglement of domestic politics and foreign alignment. Kazakhstan’s case invites a rethinking of how middle powers in autocratic settings navigate multipolarity, not as passive pawns but as adaptive actors in a fragmented international order.

Recent developments illustrate how vectorism is being retooled for authoritarian resilience. With the European Union, Kazakhstan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on raw materials, batteries, and renewable hydrogen in November 2022, followed by the endorsement of a 2025–2026 Roadmap at the first EU–Central Asia Summit in Samarkand, signaling a deepening of strategic economic ties. With China, Kazakhstan advanced significant business deals with state-owned enterprises during the August 2025 SCO Summit, further embedding itself in Beijing’s regional economic orbit. Meanwhile, relations with the United States have been reinforced by a series of agreements with major firms, including Webtec, Amazon, and ETS highlighting Kazakhstan’s ability to attract investment and technological partnerships from the world’s largest economy.

General Information

• The complete program of the lecture series can be found here.
• All lectures will be recorded and made available on the website of the Mediothek of Osteuropa-Institut and on the institute's YouTube channel.

About the Lecture Series

This lecture series features both researchers from the Institute for East European Studies (OEI) and international scholars with a focus on Eastern Europe, Russia, and Eurasia. The series explores the interplay between voluntary and involuntary human mobility across state borders and the political regimes, social orders, and cultural landscapes of Eurasia. Topics such as diversity, labor, migration, development, and the impact of refugees on their host societies are discussed from multiple disciplinary perspectives.

These interactions occur as the existing political, economic, and cultural world order is being reshaped by the deepening Russian-Chinese partnership, Russia’s attempts to secure its zones of influence, economic nationalism, and the weakening influence of the “West.” Therefore, the series also includes lectures that connect this regional focus to the emerging logic of geopolitics and geoeconomics, and the construction of alternative institutions influencing both mobility and order.