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High Stakes Election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024. Seven researchers at Freie Universität Berlin look at the decision about who will move into the White House and what it means politically, historically, and globally.

The English version of this special series presents a selection of the articles published in the university’s German online magazine campus.leben.

Kamala Harris or Donald Trump – who will win the US presidential election on November 5th? Who will move into the White House as the forty-seventh president? In both cases, winning the election will mean something unprecedented: If the Democrat Kamala Harris wins as the successor to the incumbent, Joe Biden, she would become the first woman to hold this office. If the Republican Donald Trump, who was president from 2017 to 2021, wins, then he would become the first US president to have had two impeachment proceedings brought against him. After leaving office, he also has been the defendant in several criminal trials. In terms of age, if Trump wins, he will be almost the same age as Joe Biden was when he took office.

How have the two big television debates in 2024 impacted the race? What effects are they still having? The first debate brought about a decisive change. On June 27, 2024, the two presidential candidates who faced off on CNN were the same Democratic and Republican candidates from four years ago: Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden performed so badly this time around that the Democratic Party convinced him to withdraw his candidacy and nominated Kamala Harris, born in 1964. Did this move increase the chances of electoral victory for the Democratic Party? After the TV debate on September 10 between Harris and Trump, observers agree at least that it will be a close race. Due to a decision by the Republicans, there will not be another debate for their candidate Donald Trump.

There are about 219 million eligible voters in the United States’ fifty states. What factors will be decisive in this election? What consequences would a victory for Kamala Harris have? What would a victory for Donald Trump mean? Find out how researchers at Freie Universität Berlin see the upcoming decision and read about the influences they predict will play a role and what they think is at stake in terms of foreign policy, national security, US domestic politics, and the economy.

"Harris still has the opportunity to commit to supporting reparations for slavery in the US"

Dr. Helen Gibson, Department of History, John F. Kennedy Institute

“For over two hundred years, emotions have always been crucial for US voters”

Jessica Gienow-Hecht, professor of North American history at the John F. Kennedy Institute of North American Studies

“The Grand Old Party is part of global movement of the radical right”

Priv.-Doz. Dr. Thomas Greven, Department of Political Science, John F. Kennedy Institute

“The increasing erosion of a commonly shared reality is destroying democracy”

Prof. Dr. Harald Wenzel (em.), Department of Sociology, John F. Kennedy Institute

“Black identity is still largely defined by external forces”

Sebastian Jobs, professor of North American history at the John F. Kennedy Institute

“The United States today is in the midst of a sustained debate about its role in the world”

Prof. Lora Anne Viola Ph.D., Department of Political Science, John F. Kennedy Institute

“Immigration policy can change political majorities in a lasting way”

Max Steinhardt, professor of economic policy and economic history at the John F. Kennedy Institute

“Rhetoric can decide elections”

Martin Lüthe, research associate and lecturer at the John F. Kennedy Institute, Department of Culture

“The growing gap between poor and rich is tearing apart the foundations of the nation”

Christian Lammert, professor of North American political systems at the John F. Kennedy Institute

“Trump and Harris regard China as a rival”

Genia Kostka, professor of Chinese Politics, Institute for Chinese Studies

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