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Final World Cup Game: Spain vs. Germany

Scientists at Freie Universität and the German Institute for Economic Research Publish World Cup Forecast on the Basis of Market Values of Players

№ 211/2014 from Jun 06, 2014

The final game in the World Cup on July 13, as predicted in a forecast made by scientists of Freie Universität Berlin and the German Institute for Economic Research, will probably be played by the teams from Germany and Spain. The sociologist Prof. Dr. Jürgen Gerhards at Freie Universität, the sports scientist Prof. Dr. Michael Mutz at the University of Gottingen, and the economist Prof. Dr. Gerd G. Wagner at TU Berlin and at the German Institute for Economic Research, accumulated the market value of each player on every team and used these values as a basis for all the group games as well as playoffs. Spain, with a market value of 631 million euros, and Germany, at 562 million euros, have the greatest potential to reach the finals. Following the market value forecast, the chances for the German team to win the title are greater than they have been for a long time.

According to this forecast, in Group A the host country Brazil (468 million euros) and Croatia (193 million euros) will go on to the play-offs, and in Group B, it will be Spain and the Netherlands (208 million euros). In Group C, Columbia (190 million euros) and the Ivory Coast (122 million euros) will go on, and in Group D it will be England (334 million euros) and Italy (323 million euros). Group E will be dominated by France (412 million euros) and Switzerland (178 million euros) and Group F by Argentina (392 million euros) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (114 million euros). In Group G it will be Germany and Portugal (297 million euros), and in Group H it will be Belgium (349 million euros) and Russia (184 million euros). In every case, the teams winning the quarterfinals, semifinals, and even the final game, will be the ones whose market value is higher than the opponent.

After the group phase, the fans can expect a more balanced and therefore exciting World Cup – similar to that in 2006. Although Spain with its 631 million euros is still the team with the highest market value, Brazil (467.5 million), France (412 million), Argentina (391.5 million), and especially Germany (562 million) have all made substantial gains since the last World Cup. These five teams are this year’s favorites for the title.

Further Information

Article in "Zeitschrift für Soziologie"